I am not a historian, but I love history and I like to use stories to share it.

Looking at Syria today, it’s important to remember power isn’t a destination — it’s a revolving door.  Syria’s collapse since 1967 follows the same rhythm. A family rises, holds power long enough to believe it’s permanent, then collapses into disorder. Today, Syria is in disarray, where former “states” are ruled by local militias. It’s the fate of Libya, Yemen, Iraq — nations now too late for imperialism and too soon for self-government.

Let me illustrate with a few stories… Chapter Eleven of A Line in the Sand captures this truth vividly. Magnus and Finn face armed guards at the Syrian border. No uniforms, just men with Kalashnikov rifles and twitchy fingers. Their SAS training echoes in their minds: “If anyone is in front of you, and is not in uniform … be prepared to back up fast. You must have an exit strategy.”

Then Magnus and Finn spot a crucial detail and make a theory. They notice strips of tape on the guards’ magazines — green tape on some, red on others. Their theory? Green means live ammo, red means no firing pin. It’s not foolproof, but they’ve seen just enough evidence to trust it. The guards with red-taped mags handle their weapons with less care, slinging them around like props. The guards with green-taped mags? Dead serious. It’s the kind of observation only made up close. From a distance, every guard is a threat. This lesson applies to Syria today. During our journey, we met young kids hardened by war. Too afraid or too wise to criticize the regime, they spoke in subtle signs. If we want to understand Syria’s next move, we must stay close, watch for real signs, and see power shifts happening just beneath the surface.

Another lesson comes from A Line in the Sand’s interlude with T.E. Lawrence. In a café, visibly shaken, he mumbles into his journal as he recalls the abuse he endured at the hands of Ottoman captors. “What abuse follows?” he asks. “Will the West be the next oppressor … exploit Arabia anew?” It’s a haunting question.

Lawrence isn’t just haunted by the past — he foresees the future. He sees power shifting from one oppressor to another. Just as Magnus and Finn see that border guards only appear powerful, Lawrence sees true power isn’t held by men with guns — it’s held by those watching from above.

Today, Assad, like the Ottomans before him, had power for a time. As one Russian proverb says, “It is easier to turn an aquarium into fish soup than to turn fish soup back into an aquarium.” Syria today is fish soup. No clean restoration of order is on the horizon.

And if you’re thinking… “This is not our fight.” But you don’t stand next to fish soup and not smell it. Like Magnus and Finn at the Syrian border, America will be asked for its passport. The only question is, will we have an exit strategy?