One of the quiet shocks of following world events is how often they feel familiar — not because we’ve lived them before, but because we’ve already seen them. On screen. In novels. In stories that weren’t trying to predict the future, only to make sense of the present.

That tension surfaced again this week as clips from Jack Ryan began circulating widely, following renewed U.S. military action in Venezuela. Scenes from the show’s second season — released in 2019 — suddenly felt uncomfortably current.

In one widely shared moment, Jack Ryan, played by John Krasinski, lays out the central contradiction at the heart of Venezuela’s crisis: a nation rich in oil and minerals, yet suffering one of the most severe humanitarian collapses in modern history.

That paradox wasn’t written as prophecy. It was written as plausibility.

Plausibility, Not Prediction

Carlton Cuse, co-creator of Jack Ryan, addressed the moment succinctly when asked about the parallels. Real events, he noted, have a way of “catching up” to fiction — not because writers are clairvoyant, but because they pay attention to long-standing geopolitical realities.

The second season of Jack Ryan didn’t invent Venezuela’s instability. It dramatized tensions that had already been visible for years: authoritarian consolidation, economic mismanagement, foreign leverage, and a population caught between ideology and survival.

In that sense, the series wasn’t ahead of history. History was already underway.

Why These Stories Keep Reappearing

Venezuela is not an outlier. Across the Caribbean Power Dynamics, similar narratives have unfolded with different accents and different slogans: revolutionary promise followed by centralized control; resource wealth paired with systemic scarcity; leaders who equate dissent with betrayal.

These systems don’t collapse overnight. They erode. Slowly. Bureaucratically. Intergenerationally.

What makes them so unsettling when they resurface in the news is not surprise, but recognition.

Fiction as a Record of Consequences

This is where fiction does something journalism often can’t. Headlines capture moments. Stories capture aftermath.

Historical and geopolitical fiction tends to age well not because it predicts specific events, but because it focuses on enduring forces: power, loyalty, compromise, fear, and the long memory of nations. When grounded in reality, these stories don’t expire when administrations change.

They wait.

That same approach shaped Havana Famiglia, which explores Cuba’s trajectory not as a single revolution, but as a decades-long relationship between ideology and ordinary lives — a pattern that echoes elsewhere in the Caribbean, including Venezuela. The aim was never to forecast outcomes, only to follow consequences where they lead.

Why Reality Keeps Rhyming

When Carlton Cuse said the goal of Jack Ryan wasn’t prophecy but plausibility, he articulated something most serious storytellers understand instinctively: when you ground a narrative in real power dynamics, reality eventually makes it rhyme.

Venezuela’s current moment may feel extraordinary. In truth, it is part of a much longer story — one that has been told before, in different places, under different banners, with outcomes that rarely surprise in hindsight.

The unsettling part isn’t that fiction resembles reality.

It’s that reality keeps insisting on the same lessons, even when we already know the ending.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do fictional stories about Venezuela feel accurate today?

Because they are grounded in long-standing geopolitical realities rather than short-term events. Writers who study resource concentration, authoritarian consolidation, and foreign influence often arrive at scenarios that later feel familiar — not predictive, but plausible.

Is Venezuela’s situation unique in the Caribbean?

No. While each country’s history is distinct, Venezuela shares structural similarities with other Caribbean and Latin American states that experienced revolutionary movements followed by centralized power and economic dependency.

Why does fiction often “age well” during political crises?

Fiction focuses on enduring forces — power, loyalty, fear, and compromise — rather than daily developments. When rooted in real dynamics, these stories remain relevant long after headlines change.

How does this relate to Cuba’s historical experience?

Cuba serves as an earlier case study in how ideology, foreign alliances, and economic survival shape nations over decades. These patterns help explain why similar dynamics later appeared in Venezuela and elsewhere in the region.

Where does Havana Famiglia fit into this conversation?

Havana Famiglia explores these themes through Cuba’s long arc, using personal relationships to mirror sovereign ones. While not about Venezuela, it examines the same forces that make current events feel familiar rather than surprising.

About the Author

Miles Spencer is a novelist, entrepreneur, and storyteller focused on how power, ideology, and memory shape lives across generations. He is the author of Havana Famiglia, a geopolitical novel set in Cuba that explores the long consequences of revolution, exile, and foreign influence through deeply personal relationships.

His work draws on extensive travel, historical research, and lived experience within diaspora communities, favoring plausibility over prophecy and consequence over commentary. Spencer writes at the intersection of history and fiction, where real geopolitical forces quietly outlast headlines.